The Influence of the Change of electrolytic aluminum production capacity Distribution Pattern on the "pre-baked anode" industry

SMM3 9th News: In recent years, the growth rate of domestic prebaked anode production slowed down, 2023 domestic prebaked anode production capacity increased from last year, production growth is mainly concentrated in Henan region, and some backward production capacity of the industry exit, individual production capacity conversion, SMM statistics, as of now, the domestic prebaked anode built capacity of 29.844 million tons, an increase of 3.4%. Among them, the supporting capacity accounts for 44% of the total production, and the commercial anode capacity accounts for 56% of the total production capacity.

In 2023, Shandong, Xinjiang, Henan and other places are still the main producing areas of pre-baked anode. Among them, the pre-baked anode built capacity in Shandong province is 8.89 million tons, accounting for 30% of the industry, ranking first, and Shandong region is no longer approving new projects for pre-baked anode.

Up to now, the 340,000 tons/year pre-baked anode project of Shandong Innovation Phase II has been put into production and released, and the production capacity in Shandong has reached more than 9.2 million tons. According to SMM statistics, up to now, the national pre-baked anode built capacity has exceeded 30 million tons, but the national electrolytic aluminum built capacity is 45.19 million tons, according to the average level of pre-baked anode consumption of electrolytic aluminum plants, domestic electrolytic aluminum plants can consume about 21.24 million tons of pre-baked anode, it can be seen that the pre-baked anode overcapacity is obvious.

The capacity ceiling of domestic electrolytic aluminum enterprises has been set, in order to seek a breakthrough, to better match the demand of aluminum plants, although the overall prebaked anode market oversupply, there are still new production capacity in China. In 2024, the pre-baked anode production capacity continued to grow, mainly due to the investment of new production capacity in Southwest and northwest regions and the expansion of some manufacturers in Shandong, individual enterprises in central China withdrew from the market due to factors such as corporate profitability and insufficient orders, while some backward production capacity or will continue to face elimination, and it is expected that the pre-baked anode production capacity will be about 30.8 million tons by the end of 2024.